Back in 1930 John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay called Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, where he made the prediction that his grandchildren would have a 15-hour work week. Keynes based this conclusion solely on productivity, which he expected would grow exponentially over the coming years.
But instead of witnessing a reduction in the number of work hours over the decades, we have seen our work hours stagnate to just over 40 hours since the 1970’s. In fact, most of us consider the 40-hour work week to be the gold standard when setting and maintaining our work schedules.
Harvard economist Benjamin M. Friedman believes Keynes has the right idea, however, he’s just off on the timing. According to Friedman, the U.S. economy is on track to reach Keynes’s eight-fold multiple by 2029. Friedman’s theory for the delay is our desire for material goods and possessions, something Keynes had believed would dwindle as we began to crave more leisure time.
Now it is true that the needs of human beings may seem insatiable. But they fall into two classes – those needs which are absolute in the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of our fellow human beings may be, and those which are relative in the sense that we feel superior to, our fellows. Needs of the second class, those which satisfy the desire for superiority, may indeed be insatiable; for the higher the general level, the higher still are they. But this is not so true of the absolute needs – a point may soon be reached, much sooner perhaps than we are all of us aware of, when these needs are satisfied in the sense that we prefer to devote our further energies to non-economic purposes. – John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.
Do we believe the 15-hour work week will become a reality?
Not within the next decade or so. Despite the progress in technology (AI, robotics, etc.), we believe the majority of Americans will remain both status hungry and addicted to consumerism – when the focus should be on increasing our leisure time and life experiences. And we feel the absence of this revelation means the 15-hour work week will forever remain a pipe dream.
Do you believe the 15-hour work week could become a reality? If so, do think we’ll experience it in our lifetime?